Dashboard
NA-CORDEX · 25km resolution · Ensemble mean across 12 GCMs
Δ Temp (2100 SSP5)
+5.8°C
▲ +0.3°C from last run
Model RMSE
0.847
▼ −0.012 improved
Active Regions
142
— NA-CORDEX grid cells
R² Score
0.923
▼ −0.001 vs baseline
Precip Bias
−4.1%
▲ slight dry bias
Ensemble Spread
±1.2°C
— 12 GCM members
TAS Anomaly 1980–2100
SSP2-4.5
Model Performance (4-Fold CV)
TRAIN/VAL/TEST
Training R²
Validation R²
Test R²
Bias Correction
Spatial Skill Score
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SSP Projections
2025–2100 full trajectory
◉
Impact Assessment
6 vulnerability sectors
⊡
Live Downscale
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Regional Map
Interactive NA-CORDEX grid · 25km · Click any cell
NA-CORDEX Grid
Layer: TAS
LOW
HIGH
Cell Detail
Select a cell
Click any grid cell to view regional statistics and projections.
Grid Statistics
| Metric | Value | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Mean TAS | +2.4°C | 68th |
| Max TAS | +5.8°C | 94th |
| Precip Δ | −12.3% | 31st |
| Grid Cells | 142 | — |
| Coverage | NA | — |
SSP Projections
2025–2100 · 5-fold cross-validated ensemble
SSP1-1.9
SSP1-2.6
SSP2-4.5
SSP3-7.0
SSP5-8.5
Temperature Anomaly Projections
5-FOLD CV · 12 GCM ENSEMBLE
Projection Controls
Milestones (SSP5-8.5)
| Year | Δ TAS | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | +1.5°C | Paris threshold |
| 2045 | +2.0°C | Critical boundary |
| 2060 | +3.2°C | Ice sheet instability |
| 2075 | +4.5°C | Cascade risk zone |
| 2100 | +5.8°C | Scenario endpoint |
Impact Assessment
6-sector vulnerability analysis · SSP2-4.5 baseline
Urban Heat
CRITICAL RISK
+3.8°C urban penalty by 2070
Agriculture
HIGH RISK
−18% crop yield (maize) by 2060
Water Resources
HIGH RISK
−22% summer streamflow
Public Health
CRITICAL RISK
+340% heat mortality index
Infrastructure
MEDIUM RISK
Road buckling threshold +45 days/yr
Biodiversity
HIGH RISK
38% habitat range loss by 2100
Policy Response Timeline
ADAPTATION PATHWAY
2025 · IMMEDIATE
Early warning system deployment · Urban heat island mitigation
2030 · NEAR-TERM
Agricultural adaptation protocols · Drought-resistant cultivar adoption
2040 · MID-TERM
Water infrastructure overhaul · Cross-border climate migration planning
2060 · LONG-TERM
Carbon removal at scale · Ecosystem corridor restoration
2100 · ENDPOINT
Scenario evaluation · Next-gen model integration
Model Architecture
CNN-LSTM hybrid · NA-CORDEX downscaling · 25km resolution
Architecture Block
Input: ERA5 Reanalysis (6-hourly, 0.25°)
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Spatial Encoder — 3×Conv2D (64→128→256 filters)
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Temporal Module — BiLSTM (512 hidden, 2 layers)
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Attention Gate — Multi-head (8 heads, d=512)
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Decoder — Transposed Conv + Bilinear Upsampling
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Output: TAS / Precip at 25km resolution
Loss Convergence
MAE + SSIM
Feature Importance
Z500 Geopotential
SST Anomaly
850hPa Wind
Surface Albedo
All-Split Metrics (5-Fold CV)
| Fold | R² | RMSE | MAE | SSIM | Bias | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fold 1 | 0.934 | 0.821 | 0.612 | 0.891 | −0.024 | PASS |
| Fold 2 | 0.918 | 0.856 | 0.634 | 0.878 | +0.011 | PASS |
| Fold 3 | 0.929 | 0.833 | 0.621 | 0.885 | −0.018 | PASS |
| Fold 4 | 0.912 | 0.871 | 0.648 | 0.869 | +0.033 | PASS |
| Fold 5 | 0.921 | 0.847 | 0.628 | 0.882 | −0.009 | PASS |
| Mean | 0.923 | 0.846 | 0.629 | 0.881 | −0.001 | ENSEMBLE |
Live Downscale
Adjust parameters → run inference → view TAS grid output
Parameters
Inference time: ~1.4s · Parameters: 18.2M · Memory: 2.1 GB
TAS Output Grid
READY
−2°CΔ Temperature Anomaly+6°C
Alert Feed
Severity-sorted · Auto-refresh every 5 min
CRITICAL
Extreme Heat Alert — SW United States
SSP5-8.5 ensemble exceeds +4.2°C threshold in 23 grid cells covering Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California corridor.
HIGH
Drought Risk Escalation — Great Plains
Palmer Drought Severity Index projected to exceed −3.0 by 2045 across 11 NA-CORDEX cells in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma.
MEDIUM
Precipitation Shift — Pacific Northwest
Winter precipitation regime shift detected. Snowpack reduction −31% by 2060 under SSP3-7.0 affecting Columbia River basin.
INFO
Model Retrain Complete
Epoch 200 training complete. RMSE improved −0.012. New weights deployed to production inference endpoint.