CRITICAL Heat index exceedance in SW US corridor — projected +4.2°C above baseline by 2055 under SSP5-8.5 ×
Δ Temp (2100 SSP5)
+5.8°C
▲ +0.3°C from last run
Model RMSE
0.847
▼ −0.012 improved
Active Regions
142
— NA-CORDEX grid cells
R² Score
0.923
▼ −0.001 vs baseline
Precip Bias
−4.1%
▲ slight dry bias
Ensemble Spread
±1.2°C
— 12 GCM members
TAS Anomaly 1980–2100
SSP2-4.5
2024 1980 2025 2100 0°C +5°C
Model Performance (4-Fold CV)
TRAIN/VAL/TEST
Training R²0.951
Validation R²0.923
Test R²0.918
Bias Correction96.4%
Spatial Skill Score88.7%
SSP Projections
2025–2100 full trajectory
Impact Assessment
6 vulnerability sectors
Live Downscale
Run inference now
NA-CORDEX Grid
Layer: TAS
LOW
HIGH
Cell Detail
Select a cell
Click any grid cell to view regional statistics and projections.
Grid Statistics
MetricValuePercentile
Mean TAS+2.4°C68th
Max TAS+5.8°C94th
Precip Δ−12.3%31st
Grid Cells142
CoverageNA
SSP1-1.9
SSP1-2.6
SSP2-4.5
SSP3-7.0
SSP5-8.5
Temperature Anomaly Projections
5-FOLD CV · 12 GCM ENSEMBLE
2025 2062 2100 0 2 4 6 SSP5-8.5 SSP3-7.0 SSP2-4.5 SSP1-2.6 SSP1-1.9
Projection Controls
Horizon Year2075
Resolution (km)25
CI Width (%)90
Milestones (SSP5-8.5)
YearΔ TASEvent
2030+1.5°CParis threshold
2045+2.0°CCritical boundary
2060+3.2°CIce sheet instability
2075+4.5°CCascade risk zone
2100+5.8°CScenario endpoint
🏙
Urban Heat
CRITICAL RISK
+3.8°C urban penalty by 2070
🌾
Agriculture
HIGH RISK
−18% crop yield (maize) by 2060
💧
Water Resources
HIGH RISK
−22% summer streamflow
🏥
Public Health
CRITICAL RISK
+340% heat mortality index
🏗
Infrastructure
MEDIUM RISK
Road buckling threshold +45 days/yr
🦋
Biodiversity
HIGH RISK
38% habitat range loss by 2100
Policy Response Timeline
ADAPTATION PATHWAY
2025 · IMMEDIATE
Early warning system deployment · Urban heat island mitigation
2030 · NEAR-TERM
Agricultural adaptation protocols · Drought-resistant cultivar adoption
2040 · MID-TERM
Water infrastructure overhaul · Cross-border climate migration planning
2060 · LONG-TERM
Carbon removal at scale · Ecosystem corridor restoration
2100 · ENDPOINT
Scenario evaluation · Next-gen model integration
Architecture Block
Input: ERA5 Reanalysis (6-hourly, 0.25°)
Spatial Encoder — 3×Conv2D (64→128→256 filters)
Temporal Module — BiLSTM (512 hidden, 2 layers)
Attention Gate — Multi-head (8 heads, d=512)
Decoder — Transposed Conv + Bilinear Upsampling
Output: TAS / Precip at 25km resolution
Loss Convergence
MAE + SSIM
Ep 0 Ep 200 Train Val
Feature Importance
Z500 Geopotential0.342
SST Anomaly0.218
850hPa Wind0.156
Surface Albedo0.098
All-Split Metrics (5-Fold CV)
FoldRMSEMAESSIMBiasStatus
Fold 10.9340.8210.6120.891−0.024PASS
Fold 20.9180.8560.6340.878+0.011PASS
Fold 30.9290.8330.6210.885−0.018PASS
Fold 40.9120.8710.6480.869+0.033PASS
Fold 50.9210.8470.6280.882−0.009PASS
Mean0.9230.8460.6290.881−0.001ENSEMBLE
Parameters
Latitude45.2°N
Longitude98.5°W
ScenarioSSP2-4.5
Resolution (km)25
Inference time: ~1.4s · Parameters: 18.2M · Memory: 2.1 GB
TAS Output Grid
READY
−2°CΔ Temperature Anomaly+6°C
CRITICAL Extreme Heat Alert — SW United States
SSP5-8.5 ensemble exceeds +4.2°C threshold in 23 grid cells covering Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California corridor.
REGION: SW-US-03 · LAYER: TAS · 2025-03-13 08:42 UTC
HIGH Drought Risk Escalation — Great Plains
Palmer Drought Severity Index projected to exceed −3.0 by 2045 across 11 NA-CORDEX cells in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma.
REGION: GP-CENTRAL-07 · LAYER: DROUGHT · 2025-03-12 23:15 UTC
MEDIUM Precipitation Shift — Pacific Northwest
Winter precipitation regime shift detected. Snowpack reduction −31% by 2060 under SSP3-7.0 affecting Columbia River basin.
REGION: PNW-CASCADES-02 · LAYER: PRECIP · 2025-03-12 14:08 UTC
INFO Model Retrain Complete
Epoch 200 training complete. RMSE improved −0.012. New weights deployed to production inference endpoint.
SYSTEM · 2025-03-11 02:30 UTC · READ
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Δ TAS (SSP5)
Precip Change
Agricultural Yield Impact−22%
Heat Stress Days/yr+68 days